Subsidy Reform at the Crossroads: Ghana’s Artisanal Fisheries, WTO Commitments, and the Future of Coastal Livelihoods

Ghana’s artisanal fisheries sector stands at a critical juncture, where domestic fuel subsidy reform intersects with global sustainability mandates. This study re-examines the premix fuel subsidy through a systems thinking lens, contextualized within the WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14.6. Originally intended to alleviate operational costs and uplift coastal livelihoods, the subsidy has inadvertently driven overcapacity, ecological degradation, and distorted market incentives.

Using the Evolutionary Learning Laboratory (ELLab) methodology, the research engages fishers, policymakers, and civil society actors in participatory modeling to uncover systemic feedback loops and leverage points. Causal loop diagrams and Bayesian Belief Networks reveal how entrenched political interests, weak enforcement, and limited livelihood alternatives perpetuate unsustainable practices. Comparative case studies from other WTO member states offer reform pathways that balance ecological integrity with socio-economic resilience.

Crucially, the study identifies Ghana’s 2025–2027 WTO exemption window as a strategic opportunity to redesign its subsidy regime. It proposes a phased reform roadmap that integrates stakeholder co-creation, transparent monitoring, and reinvestment in sustainable livelihoods. Over 90% of fishers support subsidy removal if accompanied by tangible benefits, signaling readiness for transformation.

By synthesizing global policy shifts, local stakeholder insights, and systemic analysis, this paper contributes a replicable model for WTO-aligned fisheries reform. It offers actionable guidance for Ghana and other developing nations navigating the complex terrain of marine resource governance, while advancing SDG 14.6 and inclusive coastal development.